Future Directions in Ionospheric Space Weather Application

Computer Science – Performance

Scientific paper

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0355 Thermosphere: Composition And Chemistry, 2415 Equatorial Ionosphere, 2427 Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0335), 2431 Ionosphere/Magnetosphere Interactions (2736), 2447 Modeling And Forecasting

Scientific paper

The ionosphere and thermosphere affect a large number of civilian and DoD systems. For example, the structure of the ionosphere influences the performance of even the most sophisticated communication, navigation, and radar systems. Changes in the total electron content affect single-frequency Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Irregularities in the ionosphere degrade and often prevent ground-to-satellite communication and GPS navigation. Dynamic modification to the shape of the electron density profile alters the direction, phase and amplitude of the signals from HF radio waves. Large electric fields and geomagnetic storms modify the density and chemical composition of the thermosphere, increase satellite drag, and degrade the orbit prediction of satellites and space debris. In this talk we will map out the future directions in Space Weather applications by using examples from the Operational Space Environmental Network Display (OpSEND) products, and from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite mission. Using these and other examples, we will also show the severe difficulties that one faces in assimilation, prediction and validation. There are requirements to generate reliable assimilative models, to predict the ionospheric and thermospheric conditions hours and even days in advance, to quantify models as well as applications performance, and to determine the improvements a new sensor or a new model will have on systems operations.

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