Physics
Scientific paper
Apr 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002georl..29g..39w&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 7, pp. 39-1, CiteID 1135, DOI 10.1029/2001GL013048
Physics
17
Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Precipitation (1854), Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical Modeling And Data Assimilation, Information Related To Geographic Region: North America
Scientific paper
Shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter gamma distribution were estimated for daily distributions of precipitation at individual grid-points in two General Circulation Models (HadCM2 and CSM). Maps of changing parameter distributions under anthropogenic forcing show the extent to which future precipitation scenarios for North America are consistent with observed trends in the 20th century. The scale parameter is found to be more variable, both spatially and temporally, than the shape parameter. Patterns of changes in mean wet-day amounts are strongly correlated with changes in the scale parameter. While the two models show quite different results for the spatial patterns of change, both indicate that the proportion of total precipitation derived from extreme and heavy events will continue to increase relative to moderate and light precipitation events.
Wigley Tom M. L.
Wilby R. L.
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