Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Sep 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008dps....40.2602g&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #40, #26.02; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 40, p.434
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
In the 5th century BC, Zeno advanced a set of paradoxes to show motion and time are impossible, hence an illusion. The problem of motion has since driven much scientific thought and discovery, extending to Einstein's insights and the quantum revolution. To determine and predict the motion of remote objects within the solar system, a methodology has been refined over centuries. It integrates ideas from astronomy, physics, mathematics, measurement, and probability theory, having motivated most of those developments. Recently generalized and made numerically efficient, statistical orbit determination has made it possible to remotely fly Magellan and other spacecraft through the turbulent atmospheres of Venus and other planets while estimating atmospheric structure and internal mass distributions of the planet. Over limited time-scales, the methodology can predict the position of the Moon within a meter and asteroids within tens of meters -- their velocities at the millimeter per second level -- while characterizing the probable correctness of the prediction. Current software and networks disseminate such ephemeris information in moments; over the last 12 years, 10 million ephemerides have been provided by the Horizons system, at the request of 300000 different users. Applications range from ground and space telescope pointing to correlation with observations recorded on Babylonian cuneiform tablets. Rapid orbit updates are particularly important for planetary radars integrating weak small-body echoes moving quickly through the frequency spectrum due to relative motion. A loop is established in which the predicted delay-Doppler measurement and uncertainties are used to configure the radar. Both predictions are then compared to actual results, the asteroid or comet orbit solution improved, and the radar system optimally adjusted. Still, after 2500 years and tremendous descriptive success, there remain substantial problems understanding and predicting motion.
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