Forecasting the Dst index during corotating interaction region events using synthesized solar wind parameters

Details Forecasting the Dst index during corotating interaction region events using synthesized solar wind parameters Forecasting the Dst index during corotating interaction region events using synthesized solar wind parameters

Mar 2012

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012jgra..11703204a&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 117, Issue A3, CiteID A03204

Physics

Interplanetary Physics: Corotating Streams

Scientific paper

Observations from SOHO, STEREO, and ACE during the declining phase of the solar cycle toward the deep minimum in 2008 are analyzed to establish the timing of corotating interaction region (CIR) activity. This analysis is then employed to synthesize signals of the z component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz, solar wind radial velocity vx, and solar wind proton density Np at 1 AU. The synthesized signals are used as a substitute for ACE measurements to represent solar wind forcing due to coronal hole driven CIR events occurring during multiple Bartel rotations (BR 2381 to BR 2393). The signals drive a low-order physics-based model of the magnetosphere called WINDMI, one of whose outputs is the ground-based measurement of the Dst index. Estimating the arrival of CIR events for future rotations using ACE and SOHO data during BR 2381 produced what we refer to as an uncalibrated yearly forecast. We next generated a video-calibrated estimate of the arrival times of CIR events in addition to information from BR 2381 using SOHO and STEREO images of the Sun in order to produce a simulated 3.5 day ahead forecast of possible geomagnetic activity. The time of arrival of CIR events is taken to be the travel time of density compressions as seen in a noninertial frame according to a radial solar wind speed of 500 km/s and a distance of 1 AU. We were able to forecast the timing of CIR-induced geomagnetic activity to within 12 h for 17 out of 28 events by using the expected recurrence of the events through multiple Bartel rotations together with SOHO and STEREO coronal hole sightings made 3.5 days before every event. The uncertainty in the IMF Bz led to a forecast of levels of geomagnetic activity on an ensemble basis, yielding a distribution of different possible Dst signatures. We used a 10-sample ensemble and a 50-sample ensemble to obtain typical representations of geomagnetic activity. Depending on the periodicity and intensity of fluctuations in Bz, we obtained higher or lower levels of activity and shorter or longer times for the recovery of the Dst to quiet levels.

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