Forecasting Solar EUV Irradiance, Validation and Automation

Details Forecasting Solar EUV Irradiance, Validation and Automation Forecasting Solar EUV Irradiance, Validation and Automation

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm51a1751f&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM51A-1751

Physics

[7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7959] Space Weather / Models, [7969] Space Weather / Satellite Drag, [7974] Space Weather / Solar Effects

Scientific paper

A new forecasting technique of the EUV solar irradiance was developed and a test case tried. This method is based on physical semi-empirical models of the solar atmosphere that are essentially different from empirical proxies based only on mathematical correlation. The physics based forecast can readily incorporate the large body of solar physics and radiative transfer knowledge, and any future developments in the understanding of the physical processes that operate in the solar atmosphere. In this paper it is shown how this forecast method is applied to a wide range of wavelengths and produces indices related to Earth upper atmospheric processes that can be correlated to observed patterns, as well as full spectra in the range 0.2 nm to 12 micron that can be utilized in GCM models. It is also shown how the forecast method is now in the process of being automated and applied to the onset of the solar activity cycle 24. In addition to the GONG and SWAN helioseismic and Ly alpha backscattering data, respectively, and the ground-based PSPT data, new measurements by SDO instruments (AIA and EVE) are being used to feed current data into the forecast technique. Furthermore, SDO/EVE data is starting to being used to validate the forecast in a substantial part of the UV range, from 6 to 100 nm.

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