Forecast and Specification of Radiation Belt Electrons Based on Solar Wind Measurements

Details Forecast and Specification of Radiation Belt Electrons Based on Solar Wind Measurements Forecast and Specification of Radiation Belt Electrons Based on Solar Wind Measurements

Dec 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003agufmsh52a..04l&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2003, abstract #SH52A-04

Physics

Plasma Physics

2100 Interplanetary Physics, 2400 Ionosphere, 2700 Magnetospheric Physics, 7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy, 7800 Space Plasma Physics

Scientific paper

Relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere are of considerable practical importance because of their effect on spacecraft and because of their radiation hazard to astronauts who perform extravehicular activity. The good correlation between solar wind velocity and MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit has long been established. We have developed a radial diffusion model, using solar wind parameters as the only input, to reproduce the variation of the MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit. Based on this model, we have constructed a real-time model that forecasts one to two days in advance the daily averaged >2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit using real-time solar wind data from ACE. The forecasts from this model are available on the web in real time. A natural extension of our current model is to create a system for making quantitative forecasts and specifications of radiation belt electrons at different radial distances and different local times based on the solar wind conditions. The successes and obstacles associated with this extension will be discussed in this presentation.

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