Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods

Details Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods

2007-01-15

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701165v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict future hurricane activity. In previous work we have used simple statistical methods to make 5 year predictions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures for this purpose. We now compare these statistical SST predictions with SST predictions made by an ensemble mean of IPCC climate models.

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