Physics
Scientific paper
Jan 1992
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992soph..137..155e&link_type=abstract
Solar Physics (ISSN 0038-0938), vol. 137, Jan. 1992, p. 155-165.
Physics
18
Solar Activity, Statistical Distributions, Sunspot Cycle, Autoregressive Processes, Curve Fitting, Least Squares Method, Predictions
Scientific paper
It has been found that sunspot cycles 10-21, represented by quarterly mean values of Zurich sunspot number, can be suitably described by the F-distribution density function, provided it is modified by introducing five characteristic parameters, in order to achieve an optimal fitting of each cycle. The average cycle calculated from cycles 10-21 has been used as a basis to forecast time and magnitude of the maximum of each cycle, as a function of various numbers of the first quarterly mean values in the beginning N = 8 to 16 quarters. The standard deviations at a 99 percent significance level calculated from the observed values depend on N, and vary from 1.6 to 1.1 quarters and 65 to 16 units of sunspot number. A rather sufficient forecast is obtained from N = 12 quarters (with inaccuracy of +/- 1.5 quarters and +/- 24 units).
Elling W.
Schwentek Heinrich
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