Extended-range ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the northern Indian Ocean: Modulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation

Details Extended-range ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the northern Indian Ocean: Modulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation Extended-range ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the northern Indian Ocean: Modulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation

Aug 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3815803f&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 15, CiteID L15803

Physics

Geophysics

Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction (3245, 4263, 4315), Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238, 4315), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Cyclones, Natural Hazards: Early Warning Systems

Scientific paper

A conventional atmosphere-ocean coupled system initialized with NCEP FNL analysis has successfully predicted a tropical cyclogenesis event in the northern Indian Ocean with a lead time of two weeks. The coupled forecasting system reproduces the westerly wind bursts in the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with an eastward-propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event as well as the accompanying northward-propagating westerly and convective disturbances. After reaching the Bay of Bengal, this northward-propagating Intra-Seasonal Variability (ISV) fosters the tropical cyclogenesis. The present finding demonstrates that a realistic MJO/ISV prediction will make the extended-range forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis possible and also calls for improved representation of the MJO/ISV in contemporary weather and climate forecast models.

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