Examination of metrics for determining quality of data comparisons

Physics

Scientific paper

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2722 Forecasting, 2736 Magnetosphere/Ionosphere Interactions, 2753 Numerical Modeling

Scientific paper

Recent activities within the Space Weather Modeling community have focused on making quantitative comparisons between observations and the results of various models. In this paper we will use the results from the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global MHD code for the Electrojet challenge, prediction of ground magnetometer response, and GGCM Metrics challenge, prediction of DMSP polar cap potential, to examine how well various metrics measure quality of these data comparisons. We will present results for metrics based upon RMS error, absolute error, zero lag cross correlations. In addition, we will present skill scores for these metrics. In order to assess how well these metrics work in measuring the quality of the data comparison we will also calculate these metrics and skill scores on simulation results which have been intentionally reduced in quality. The goal of this study is to identify the strength and weakness of the various metrics now be used within the space weather modeling community.

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