Evaluation of the monthly variability of f0F2 at a low-latitude station

Physics

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Annual Variations, Critical Frequencies, F Region, Autocorrelation, Autoregressive Processes, Markov Processes, Solar Cycles, Sunspots, Tropical Regions

Scientific paper

Autocorrelation analyses have been performed on the deviations of monthly-median f0F2 from mean seasonal patterns for solar minimum and solar maximum conditions, and a Markov statistical model is used to determine the variance of low-latitude monthly-median f0F2. The prediction scheme in the present method is a mean seasonal pattern of f0F2 averaged over two seasons. It is found that a prediction is likely to be valid up to 2-4 months, irrespective of solar activity conditions. The rms error of the monthly predictability of f0F2 in the present approach is compared with that found for f0F2 predictability using the CCIR-R12 method.

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