Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective

Details Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective

Dec 2000

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000georl..27.4049t&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Issue 24, p. 4049-4052

Physics

5

Magnetospheric Physics: Forecasting, Magnetospheric Physics: Storms And Substorms, Policy Sciences: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Scientific paper

Decision Theory can be used as a tool for discussing the relative costs of complacency and false alarms with users of space weather forecasts. We describe a new metric for the value of space weather forecasts, derived from Decision Theory. In particular we give equations for the level of accuracy that a forecast must exceed in order to be useful to a specific customer. The technique is illustrated by simplified example forecasts for global geomagnetic activity and for geophysical exploration and power grid management in the British Isles.

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