Estimations of the uncertainty in timing the relationship between magnetospheric and solar wind processes

Physics

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Scientific paper

We present here a statistical study quantifying the errors associated with the most commonly used methods for propagating discontinuities in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from an upstream monitor to the magnetosphere by the magnetospheric and ionospheric communities. The purpose of this paper is to show the quantified errors in the different techniques. Step changes in the IMF orientation were first identified at the WIND satellite. A total of 363 events were identified. Ninety percent of the events measured at WIND (330) were clearly observed in the IMP 8 data. Of those events, the time delay between the satellites could be determined to within 2 min in 288 events. Four propagation methods were used to estimate the time delay between WIND and IMP 8: (1) using only the X distance between the satellites; (2) assuming that the propagation front plane is in the plane of the Parker spiral; (3) using the IMF in the X-Y plane to estimate the propagation front plane; and (4) using the total IMF to determine the Z component of the propagation front plane. The average (/E¯) and maximum (Emax) propagation error (in minutes) as a function of Y-Z distance (in Re) were determined for each method. It is concluded that the average uncertainty in propagation is 7.5-8.5 min for off-axis distances of 30 Re (which is the average WIND off-axis distance, and approximately the largest off-axis distance of IMP 8). For off-axis distances of 100 Re (the largest off-axis distance of WIND), the uncertainties are 17.5-25 min, depending on the propagation method.

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