Estimating the Neutral Atmospheric Forcing Using Data Assimilation

Physics

Scientific paper

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2439 Ionospheric Irregularities, 2443 Midlatitude Ionosphere, 2483 Wave/Particle Interactions, 2494 Instruments And Techniques : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :, 0355 Thermosphere: Composition And Chemistry, 0358 Thermosphere: Energy Deposition, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 2467 Plasma Temperature And Density, 2722 Forecasting

Scientific paper

Based on data assimilation techniques developed in meteorology and oceanography, a data assimilation system has been developed to provide a time-dependent estimate of the thermospheric density, temperature, and composition. Through its application, distinct characteristics of the neutral atmosphere have become apparent. It has been long realized that, unlike the troposphere, the neutral atmosphere is more strongly driven by external forcing, which includes Joule, particle, and solar heating. It has also been understood that knowing the forcing alone, over a period of days, can allow for a fairly accurate modeling of the neutral atmospheric conditions: density, temperature, and composition. Unfortunately, the magnitude and the distribution of the forcing are difficult to observe since scalar values are typically used to describe complicated processes. The research presented here attempts to better estimate the forcing and its effect on the neutral atmosphere from observing the neutral atmospheric conditions and the changes in these conditions spatially and temporally. Since the magnitude and distribution of the forcing cannot be observed directly, a statistical approach is used to provide the `best' description for this process through data assimilation.

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