Entropy, energy, and proximity to criticality in global earthquake populations

Details Entropy, energy, and proximity to criticality in global earthquake populations Entropy, energy, and proximity to criticality in global earthquake populations

Apr 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002georl..29g..25m&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 7, pp. 25-1, CiteID 1121, DOI 10.1029/2001GL014078

Physics

Geophysics

7

Mathematical Geophysics: Nonlinear Dynamics, Seismology: Seismic Hazard Assessment And Prediction, Seismology: Earthquake Dynamics And Mechanics, Seismology: Theory And Modeling

Scientific paper

We examine the question of proximity of the global earthquake population to the critical point characterised by the energy E and entropy S based on annual frequency data from the Harvard CMT catalogue. The results are compared with a theoretical model corresponding to a Boltzmann probability density distribution of the form p(E) ~ E-B-1e-E/θ. The data are consistent with the model predictions for fluctuations in the characteristic energy θ at constant B value, of the form S~B. This approximation is valid for large θ, relative to the maximum possible event size, confirming that the Earth is perpetually in a near-critical state, reminiscent of self-organized criticality. However, the results also show fluctuations of +/-10% in entropy that may be more consistent with the notion of intermittent criticality. A more precise definition of the two paradigms, and a similar analysis of numerical models, are both needed to distinguish between these competing models.

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