Physics
Scientific paper
Feb 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001georl..28..579c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 28, Issue 4, p. 579-582
Physics
15
Global Change: Climate Dynamics, Oceanography: General: Climate And Interannual Variability, Oceanography: General: Ocean Prediction, Oceanography: Physical: El Nino
Scientific paper
The zonal windstress anomaly in the far-western equatorial Pacific (130-160°E) is a precursor to El Niño and La Niña episodes. A linear combination of this wind-stress with the El Niño index NINO3.4 can be used to predict ENSO successfully. Cross-verified prediction results for NINO3.4 compare favorably with those of leading ENSO prediction models. The model is improved slightly if the time trend in sea surface temperature (SST) near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool is included in the linear combination. Physically this trend is related to zonal equatorial ocean flow which advects the warm pool. The trend therefore aids prediction since it is a precursor to warm pool position and hence ENSO variability.
Clarke Allan J.
Van Gorder Stephen
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