Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Nov 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3221801g&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 21, CiteID L21801
Physics
Geophysics
Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction (3245, 4263), Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238), Mathematical Geophysics: Uncertainty Quantification (1873), Atmospheric Processes: Data Assimilation, Nonlinear Geophysics: Chaos (7805)
Scientific paper
The methodology to generate members of an ensemble is an important issue in operational forecasting; currently a number of procedures are followed at different operational centres. In the present work we propose and evaluate a methodology where a dynamically consistent set of initial conditions is generated through 4D-Var assimilation procedure. The perturbations are generated through 4D-Var assimilation with different information (observation) content, either through a variation in the frequency of observations or a variation in the length of assimilation window. We adopt a representative non-linear system, viz. the three-variable Lorenz system and show that ensemble forecasts generated through 4D-Var assimilation show less error than those generated from initial conditions (with similar amplitude of perturbation) adopted arbitrarily. Another advantage of the procedure is that it provides a (variable-specific) estimate of the maximum allowed amplitude and spread of perturbations.
Goswami Pallab
Gouda K. C.
Talagrand Olivier
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