Energy Transport and the Limits of Predictability in the Solar-Wind Driven Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

Details Energy Transport and the Limits of Predictability in the Solar-Wind Driven Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System Energy Transport and the Limits of Predictability in the Solar-Wind Driven Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsm21a0762d&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SM21A-0762

Physics

2736 Magnetosphere/Ionosphere Interactions, 2740 Magnetospheric Configuration And Dynamics, 2744 Magnetotail, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

The solar wind-driven magnetosphere-ionosphere system exhibits a variety of dynamical states including low-level steady plasma convection, episodic releases of geotail stored plasma energy into the ionosphere called substorms, and magnetospheric storms that last for days and are relatively infrequent events often associated with coronal mass ejections.l Even under conditions of constant driving, nonlinear feed forward and feedback loops in the energy transport give intrinsic limits to the predictability of the system. There is a complicated set of states that can be seen in the state space of solar dynamo driver versus ionosphere damping in which there are fractal boundaries between the domains of limit cycles and deterministic chaos defined by the greatest Lyapunov exponent. We show that for states approaching the level of storms but still in the substorm regime, the prediction time is limited to about 5 hours under constant solar wind driving. [1] Horton, W., and I. Doxas, A Low-Dimensional Dynamical Model for the Solar Wind Driven Geotail-Ionosphere System, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 4561 (1998); Horton, W., and I. Doxas, A low-dimensional energy-conserving state space model for substorm dynamics, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 27,223 (1996).

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