Effects of Planetary Wave Propagation and Finite Depth on the Predictability of Atmospheres.

Details Effects of Planetary Wave Propagation and Finite Depth on the Predictability of Atmospheres. Effects of Planetary Wave Propagation and Finite Depth on the Predictability of Atmospheres.

Feb 1983

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1983jats...40..314h&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 40, Issue 2, pp.314-327

Physics

14

Scientific paper

Theoretical predictability of the atmosphere is limited in part by the rate at which small-scale observational errors in the initiation of a forecast grow both in amplitude and in length scale with increasing time. Processes of error growth are examined for the case of equivalent barotropic motion on a -plane. From direct numerical simulations and from statistical closure theory, it is seen that larger implies slower rate of error growth. Thus planetary wave propagation enhances predictability. Inclusion of a finite equivalent depth also enhances predictability. For values of and of the equivalent depth representative of Earth's atmosphere, a theoretical predictability time scale is increased fourfold over earlier calculations based on uniformly rotating, `rigid lid' models.

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