Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2000
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000georl..27.3957p&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Issue 23, p. 3957-3960
Physics
4
Seismology: Earthquake Dynamics And Mechanics, Seismology: Seismic Hazard Assessment And Prediction, Seismology: Seismicity And Seismotectonics, Information Related To Geographic Region: Europe
Scientific paper
Historical and instrumental data of the last five centuries show that major earthquakes in the Marmara Sea area are followed by high strong-earthquake seismicity in the Aegean area. During the first phase of this excitation period, which lasts about 3 years, strong shallow earthquakes concentrate almost exclusively along the Northern Boundary of the Aegean plate. Within 1-5 years after the first strong earthquake along this boundary, strong-earthquake seismicity also increases in the Eastern Aegean Boundary. On the basis of current ideas on active tectonics and the previous observations, we expect the generation of several mainshocks with a mean magnitude of M=6.5 along the Northern Aegean Boundary during the next 3 years, following the recent large Izmit (NW Turkey) earthquake (1999.8.17, M=7.4).
Karakaisis George F.
Papazachos Constantinos B.
Scordilis E. M.
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