Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 1988
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1988pepi...53...12m&link_type=abstract
Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 53, Issue 1-2, p. 12-16.
Physics
1
Scientific paper
From January 1, 1960 to June 30, 1987, 29 swarms and swarm groups have been identified in the Dalton-Gunning region, Australia. Sixteen of these were followed by larger events related to them. If Mp is the mean Richter magnitude of the three largest events of a swarm and Mm is the magnitude of the subsequent main shock, then the 16 cases fit the regression Mm = (0.93 +/- 0.18) Mp + (0.92 +/- 0.36) Fourteen of the 16 swarms were followed by a main shock within 60 days, so there is a probability of ~ 48% that any swarm will be followed by a related main shock within this time period. This is more useful than earthquake risk statistics for forecasting events with 2.6 <= Mm <= 3.6, as the largest event related to a precursory swarm had magnitude ML 3.6.
However, many events, including the only two potentially damaging earthquakes in the region since the commencement of detailed seismological recording, would not have been forecast by swarms.
Klein Vicki
Krayshek Clementine
Michael-Leiba Marion
Weekes Janet
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