Earthquake hazard assessment in the North Sea

Details Earthquake hazard assessment in the North Sea Earthquake hazard assessment in the North Sea

Nov 1986

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1986pepi...44..201b&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 44, Issue 3, p. 201-210.

Physics

4

Scientific paper

The assessment of seismic hazard in regions such as the North Sea where the activity rate is comparatively low requires the adoption of a methodology designed to maximize the use of available sources of information, including historical and instrumental seismicity, geology, tectonics and local soil properties.
In a series of site-specific studies of seismic hazard in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, a procedure has been developed which reduces uncertainties through emphasis on primary data. Thus the sizes and locations of felt extents have been reassessed from original historical documents; the epicentres of early twentieth century events have been relocated using instrumental data, and a correlation between felt areas and Ms has been developed which allows magnitudes to be assigned to historical earthquakes. Recently recorded instrumental data have been used in delineating the finer details of the current seismicity patterns.
An essential part of the adopted methodology is a thorough geological study based on seismic reflection and other geophysical data, with the main purpose to delineate possible active faults. The computation of seismic hazard includes the modelling of tectonic regions as derived from a seismotectonic synthesis of both seismological and geological data, as well as the modelling of individual active faults where also non-planar geometries (such as listricities) are accounted for. A reliable hazard assessment also requires much emphasis on strong-motion attenuation models, where new relationships now have been derived, specifically applicable to North Sea conditions.
A seismic hazard assessment finally requires a comprehensive analysis of uncertainties, both because a total uncertainty estimate for the computed loads is needed, and because it is essential to know the relative importance of the different sources of uncertainty. For this purpose, a method has been adopted, based essentially on a Bayesian analysis in combination with a Monte Carlo technique.

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