Earth's dynamo limit of predictability

Details Earth's dynamo limit of predictability Earth's dynamo limit of predictability

Mar 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3706305h&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 6, CiteID L06305

Physics

Geophysics

8

Geomagnetism And Paleomagnetism: Dynamo: Theories And Simulations, Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction (3245, 4263), Nonlinear Geophysics: Chaos (7805), Geomagnetism And Paleomagnetism: Time Variations: Secular And Longer, Geomagnetism And Paleomagnetism: Reversals: Process, Timescale, Magnetostratigraphy

Scientific paper

Earth's magnetic field is currently decreasing, reducing the protection it offers against charged particles coming from space and increasing space weather hazards within the near-Earth environment. Modeling the future evolution of the field is thus of considerable interest. But how far in the future this can conceivably be done is still an open question. Here we report on the first systematic investigation of the limit of predictability of fully consistent 3D numerical dynamo simulations, and suggest that the Earth's dynamo is likely unpredictable beyond a century, making decade timescale forecasts of the main magnetic field conceivable, but rendering longer-term predictions, such as the timing of the next reversal, totally unpredictable.

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