Dynamics of the Auroral Electrojet Index Time Series

Details Dynamics of the Auroral Electrojet Index Time Series Dynamics of the Auroral Electrojet Index Time Series

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsh31a1647z&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SH31A-1647

Physics

2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954), 3270 Time Series Analysis (1872, 4277, 4475), 4430 Complex Systems, 4440 Fractals And Multifractals

Scientific paper

We analyze the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index data for periods of Solar minimum and maximum, with respect to predictability and intermittency. Neural networks are employed to the AE- data for different intermittent as well as smooth intervals, and it is shown that the intermittent bursts can be predicted from the smooth sequences of the the AE-data, whereas the opposite does not hold true. This implies that the smooth dynamics in the data could cause intermittent bursts, but that it is difficult to find a causal link between the bursty dynamics and the subsequent smooth signal. It is, however, possible to establish a causal link between the smooth signals before and after the intermittent burst. We also compute the multifractal singularity spectrum as additional evidence for the existence of intermittency, and show that this spectrum is independent of the Solar activity.

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