Dst Prediction from CIR Events During 2008 Using Synthesized Signals Derived From SOHO, STEREO, and ACE Observations

Details Dst Prediction from CIR Events During 2008 Using Synthesized Signals Derived From SOHO, STEREO, and ACE Observations Dst Prediction from CIR Events During 2008 Using Synthesized Signals Derived From SOHO, STEREO, and ACE Observations

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsm12a..03s&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SM12A-03

Physics

[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [7954] Space Weather / Magnetic Storms

Scientific paper

Observations from SOHO, STEREO, and ACE during the declining phase of the deep solar minimum in 2008 are analyzed in order to synthesize signals of the IMF Bz, solar wind velocity vx, and solar wind proton density Np at 1 AU. These synthesized signals are used as a substitute for ACE measurements to represent solar wind forcing due to coronal hole driven CIR events occuring during multiple Bartel rotations (BR 2381 - BR 2393). The signals drive a low order physics based model of the magnetosphere called WINDMI, one of whose outputs is the ground based measurement of the Dst index. Estimating the arrival of CIR events for future rotations using ACE and SOHO data during BR 2381 produced what we referred to as an uncalibrated yearly prediction. We proceeded to generate a video calibrated (VC) estimate of the arrival times of CIR events in addition to information from BR 2381 using SOHO and STEREO images of the Sun in order to produce a simulated 3.5 day ahead prediction of possible geomagnetic activity. The time of arrival of CIR events is taken to be the travel time of compressions as seen in a non-inertial frame according to a radial solar wind speed of 500 km/s and a distance of 1 AU. We found that we were able to predict the timing of CIR induced geomagnetic activity quite accurately by using the expected recurrence of the events through multiple Bartel rotations, and further improve it through SOHO and STEREO coronal hole sightings made 3.5 days before every event. The uncertainty in the IMF Bz led to predictions of levels of geomagnetic activity on an ensemble basis, yielding a distribution of different possible Dst signatures.

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