Downstream Forecasting of Ionospheric Scintillation Based on Trajectory Modeling of In-situ Measurements

Details Downstream Forecasting of Ionospheric Scintillation Based on Trajectory Modeling of In-situ Measurements Downstream Forecasting of Ionospheric Scintillation Based on Trajectory Modeling of In-situ Measurements

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsa51a0762d&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SA51A-0762

Physics

2439 Ionospheric Irregularities, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 2463 Plasma Convection, 2475 Polar Cap Ionosphere

Scientific paper

Prediction of scintillation occurrence at high latitudes is a complex problem involving irregularity generation and decay rates, time-dependent coupling between the interplanetary magnetic field and ionospheric electric field, and long-range transport of ionospheric plasma by the varying convection electric field. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of tracing measurements of large-scale density structures and irregularities detected by satellite instrumentation forward in time along convection trajectories for the purpose of providing specification and short-term forecasts of high-latitude scintillation. We will present examples of convection tracing showing the linkage between ionospheric regions resulting from the variable E x B drift pattern and discuss practical limits on position extrapolation and scintillation specification posed by uncertainty in the convection pattern and temporal evolution of scintillation-producing features. We will also give examples of scintillation-related irregularities as observed in situ and discuss techniques for estimating radio wave scintillation on the ground from the in situ observations.

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