Does the h-index have predictive power?

Details Does the h-index have predictive power? Does the h-index have predictive power?

2007-08-06

arxiv.org/abs/0708.0646v2

Proc.Nat.Acad.Sci. vol. 104, 19193 (2007)

Physics

Physics and Society

Sect. V added on combining h and N_c, with new Fig. 11. Other minor changes. To be published in PNAS

Scientific paper

10.1073/pnas.0707962104

Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h-index compared to other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h-index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h-index.

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