Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals, Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007)

Details Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals, Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007) Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals, Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007)

2009-08-16

arxiv.org/abs/0908.2240v1

Physics

Geophysics

15 pages + 10 figures

Scientific paper

We modify the new method for the statistical estimation of the tail distribution of earthquake seismic moments introduced by Pisarenko et al. [2009] and apply it to the earthquake catalog of Japan (1923-2007). The method is based on the two main limit theorems of the theory of extreme values and on the derived duality between the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV). We obtain the distribution of maximum earthquake magnitudes in future time intervals of arbitrary duration tau. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Qq(tau) at any desirable statistical level q. The quantile Qq(tau) provides a much more stable and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude Mmax (Mmax can be obtained as the limit of Qq(tau) as q tends to 1, and tau tends to infinity). The best estimates of the parameters governing the distribution of Qq(tay) for Japan (1923-2007) are the following: Form parameter for GEV = -0.1901 +- 0.0717; position parameter GEV(tau=200)= 6.3387 +- 0.0380; spread parameter for GEV(tau=200)= 0.5995 +- 0.0223; Q_0.90,GEV(tau=10)= 8.34 +- 0.32. We also estimate Qq(tau) for a set of q-values and future time periods in the range for tau between 1 and 50 years from 2007. For comparison, the absolute maximum estimate Mmax from GEV, which is equal to 9.57 +- 0.86, has a scatter more than twice that of the 90 percent quantile Q_{0.90,GEV}(tau=10) of the maximum magnitude over the next 10 years counted from 2007.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals, Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007) does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals, Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007), we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals, Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007) will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-704692