Direct and indirect methods on predicting ionosphere and their compare

Details Direct and indirect methods on predicting ionosphere and their compare Direct and indirect methods on predicting ionosphere and their compare

Jan 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008acasn..49...29l&link_type=abstract

Acta Astronomica Sinica, vol. 49, no. 1, p. 29-44

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Earth: Atmosphere, Methods: Data Anelysis

Scientific paper

The direct and indirect methods on predicting ionosphere are proposed in this paper. These methods are using ARIMA(p, d, q) model of the time series theory to predict ionosphere. The direct method is predicting the TEC in each node of grid forming time series. The indirect method is: Firstly, the ionospheric TEC is fitted by spherical-harmonic expansion. the fitted coefficients for different time forming time series can be obtained; and then, these time series will be analyzed by ARIMA(p, d, q) model and will be used to predict the spherical-harmonic coefficients; and finally, the ionospheric TEC will be predicted by the predicted spherical-harmonic coefficients. The TEC data in the duration of 2004 Jan 1 to 2005 Jan 31 from International GPS Service(IGS) is used to verify and compare the two methods. The results of the two methods are nearly the same in the first 12 days. In last days, the prediction of the indirect method is more accurate than the direct method. Within 20 days, the percentage of the grids number of the difference between prediction value and original value less than 3 TECU is about 80%. As time going, this percentage of the indirect method clearly descends but this percentage of the direct method descends un-conspicuously. The direct method is suitably applied to local predicting TEC while the indirect method to global predicting TEC.

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