Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling

Details Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling

Nov 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3721707h&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 21, CiteID L21707

Physics

Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Policy Sciences: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (1918)

Scientific paper

Integrated Assessment Models are widely used tools for the evaluation of environmental policy. In order to include uncertainty estimates or derive optimal policies, highly efficient calculations of global change are generally required, often using pattern scaling to derive spatial distributions of change. Here we develop an alternative to pattern scaling that allows for nonlinear spatio-temporal behaviour. We use an intermediate complexity AOGCM to perform an ensemble of simulations for a range of greenhouse gas concentration profiles and model parameters. We decompose climate change fields into a series of spatial patterns and then derive the functional dependence of the dominant patterns on model input. This allows us to rapidly reconstruct a good approximation to the simulated change from an arbitrary concentration profile (without the need for further simulation). The efficiency of the approach paves the way for incorporating improved calculations of climate change into integrated assessment, including location-dependent estimates of uncertainty.

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