Developing forecasting charts for sunspot numbers

Details Developing forecasting charts for sunspot numbers Developing forecasting charts for sunspot numbers

Jan 1982

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1982jgr....87....9k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 87, Jan. 1, 1982, p. 9-16.

Physics

6

Mathematical Models, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Secular Variations, Sunspot Cycle, Annual Variations, Diurnal Variations, Long Term Effects

Scientific paper

Two centuries (1779-1978) of sunspot data are fitted to models by means of a new statistical modeling approach, and minimum mean squared error forecasts are obtained by applying the appropriate models for yearly, monthly and daily sunspot numbers. In addition to the well-known 11-year periodicity, 76-year and 27-year periods, and a 2.5-year period due to stratospheric winds, were found by the analysis of new models. Forecasting charts are developed in a format which allows one to obtain yearly and daily average predictions of sunspot numbers. The forecasting charts can also be updated in the event of an abrupt change in the observed sunspot activity.

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