Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Oct 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3519304w&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 19, CiteID L19304
Physics
Geophysics
4
Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242), Nonlinear Geophysics: Complex Systems, Seismology: Seismicity And Tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242), Nonlinear Geophysics: Critical Phenomena
Scientific paper
In this paper we analyze the evolution of seismic activity using a dynamic modification of the pattern informatics method. This method identifies locations that have systematic fluctuations in seismicity on PI maps. By investigating the evolution of hotspot configurations on the PI map and calculating the distance between hotspots and the epicenter of the impending large earthquake, a migrating pattern of (increasing or decreasing) precursory change in seismicity is revealed. We find that hotspots on the PI map appear increasingly closer to the epicenter as the time of the forthcoming earthquake is approached, implying the existence of an earthquake preparation process. The migration pattern and associated decreasing distance is confirmed by a stochastic test, and therefore we conclude that a preparation process prior to large earthquakes can be detected.
CHen Chien-Chih
Rundle John B.
Wu Yi-Hsuan
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