Derivation of the collision probability between orbiting objects The lifetimes of Jupiter's outer moons

Computer Science – Numerical Analysis

Scientific paper

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Collisions, Jupiter (Planet), Natural Satellites, Opik Theory, Orbital Elements, Planetary Orbits, Probability Theory, Numerical Analysis, Pioneer 10 Space Probe, Pioneer 11 Space Probe, Spatial Distribution, Jupiter, Satellites, Collisions, Calculations, Orbital Parameters, Theoretical Studies, Statistical Analysis, Timescale, Retrograde Motion, Density, Velocity, Latitude

Scientific paper

A general form is derived for Opik's equations relating to the probability of collision between two orbiting objects to their orbital elements, and used to determine the collisional lifetime of the eight outer moons of Jupiter. The derivation is based on a concept of spatial density, or average number of objects found in a unit volume, and results in a set of equations that are easily applied to a variety of orbital collision problems. When applied to the outer satellites, which are all in irregular orbits, the equations predict a relatively long collisional lifetime for the four retrograde moons (about 270 billon years on the average) and a shorter time for the four posigrade moons (0.9 billion years). This short time is suggestive of a past collision history, and may account for the orbiting dust detected by Pioneers 10 and 11.

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