Dangerous FEP Events: Real-Time Data of Ground and Satellite CR Measurements Using for Monitoring of Beginning and Forecasting of Expected Particle Fluxes in Atmosphere and in Space

Details Dangerous FEP Events: Real-Time Data of Ground and Satellite CR Measurements Using for Monitoring of Beginning and Forecasting of Expected Particle Fluxes in Atmosphere and in Space Dangerous FEP Events: Real-Time Data of Ground and Satellite CR Measurements Using for Monitoring of Beginning and Forecasting of Expected Particle Fluxes in Atmosphere and in Space

Jul 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003icrc....6.3411d&link_type=abstract

Proceedings of the 28th International Cosmic Ray Conference. July 31-August 7, 2003. Trukuba, Japan. Under the auspices of the I

Physics

Scientific paper

We describe the underlying principles of an algorithm to provide an early warning on a dangerously high flux of solar flare energetic particle (FEP) in nearearth orbits. The algorithm is based on real-time one-minute neutron monitor (NM) data that include different multiplicities. A large increase in the NM counts in all channels indicates the possible initiation of a large FEP event. The next one-minute data are used for checking whether the observed increase indeed corresp onds to the beginning of real large FEP event. If this is the case, determination of the energy spectrum of the approaching solar particles is attempted. We show that the time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space and the energy spectrum in source can also be estimated from the NM and satellite online data. The algorithm is applied to the NM measurements on Mt. Gran-Sasso during the large FEP event of September 1989. The predicted particle fluxes are compared with the fluxes measured by GOES. This comparison indicates that the spectrum determined from the data collected within 10-12 minutes after the detection of the FEP event provides a stable forecast of the peak fluxes. This research is partly supported by the INTAS grant 0810.

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