Convection-generated stress concentration and seismogenic models of the Tangshan earthquake

Physics

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Scientific paper

Despite the success of earthquake predictions in China, the complete failure of the Chinese program to predict the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in the Peking region indicates that the state of stress in China is still very poorly understood. This paper examines the subcrustal stress field due to mantle convection flows under China as inferred from the satellite gravity field of the Earth. This stress field enables us to determine the current stress regimes in the crust of the Peking region. It is shown that under the influence of this subcrustal stress field the rectangular fault system in the Peking region will cause stress concentration. Conformal transformation and mapping of the convection-generated stresses under North China have revealed stress concentration in the rhombic Tangshan fault block. The magnitude and direction of the concentrated stress field in the Tangshan seismic district seem to be in accord with the seismogenic models for the 1976 Tangshan earthquake developed by Guo et al., (1977) and Ding (1978).

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