Continuous Time Model for the Dst Index

Details Continuous Time Model for the Dst Index Continuous Time Model for the Dst Index

Dec 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsa51b0239z&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SA51B-0239

Physics

2722 Forecasting, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

We have used the NARMAX based system identification approach to deduce, directly from measurements of upstream magnetic field and solar wind bulk velocity, a continuous time differential relationship that governs the evolution of the Dst index. This relation has been used to deduce the analytical dependence of the ring current decay rate upon values of VBs and Dst. It is shown that this depends upon a number of previous values of the solar wind parameters and Dst. Therefore the assumption often used previously in empirical models that the magnetosphere is a first order Markov's system is not valid. We show that the continuous time relation derived can be used for a reliable forecast of the Dst index.

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