Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake

Details Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake

May 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3509701k&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 9, CiteID L09701

Physics

Geophysics

11

Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238), Mathematical Geophysics: Uncertainty Quantification (1873)

Scientific paper

Projections of future transient global temperature increase in climate models for a known forcing depend on the strength of the atmospheric feedbacks and the rate of transient ocean heat uptake. A Bayesian framework and an intermediate complexity climate model are used to calculate a probability density function (PDF) of the transient climate response (TCR), constrained by observations of global surface warming and ocean heat uptake. The PDF constrained by observations is wider than the TCR range of current climate models, and has a slightly lower mean. Uncertainties in the observed ocean warming are shown to potentially affect the TCR. It is proposed, however, that even if models were found to overestimate ocean heat uptake, correcting that bias would lead to revisions in surface temperature projections over the twenty-first century that are smaller than the uncertainties introduced by poorly quantified atmospheric feedbacks.

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