CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty

Details CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty

2009-09-10

arxiv.org/abs/0909.1890v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

The CMIP3 multi-model ensemble spread most likely underestimates the real model uncertainty in future climate predictions because of the similarity, and shared defects, of the models in the ensemble. To generate an appropriate level of uncertainty, the spread needs inflating. We derive the mathematical connection between an assumed level of correlation between the model output and the necessary inflation of the spread, and illustrate the connection by making temperature predictions for the UK for the 21st century using four different correlation scenarios.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-131321