Climate response associated with the Southern Annular Mode in the surroundings of Antarctic Peninsula: A multimodel ensemble analysis

Details Climate response associated with the Southern Annular Mode in the surroundings of Antarctic Peninsula: A multimodel ensemble analysis Climate response associated with the Southern Annular Mode in the surroundings of Antarctic Peninsula: A multimodel ensemble analysis

Aug 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3216713c&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 16, CiteID L16713

Physics

8

Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions (0312, 4504), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)

Scientific paper

This paper is an attempt to extract an average picture of the response of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing from a multimodel ensemble of simulations conducted in the framework of the IPCC 4th assessment experiments. Our analysis confirms that the climate change signal in the mid- to high southern latitudes projects strongly into the positive phase (PP) of the SAM. Over the present climate time slice (1970-1999), multimodel ensemble mean reproduce the regional warming around the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) associated with the SAM. When increasing GHG (future time slice, 2070-2099), warming in the neighborhoods of the AP and decreasing sea-ice volume in the sea-ice edge region in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas intensifies, suggesting that recent observed sea-ice trends around AP could be associated to anthropogenic forcings. Changes in surface temperature and sea-ice are consistent with anomalous atmospheric heat transport associated with circulation anomalies.

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