Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations

Details Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations

Sep 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3217704b&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 17, CiteID L17704

Physics

14

Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Global Change: Instruments And Techniques

Scientific paper

An empirical-statistical downscaling analysis for monthly mean temperature and precipitation is presented for a multi-model ensemble of the most recent climate scenarios (Special Report Emission Scenario A1b) produced for the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). The analysis involves a model evaluation by incorporating common EOF analysis, where the degree of similarity between the spatial structure of large-scale anomalies in re-analysis products and the climate models is examined. The empirical-statistical downscaling incorporates local information for a given set of locations, however, additional geographical information is utilised in the spatial interpolation of the results. A best-estimate of trend is derived through a Bayesian approach. Thus, maps of multi-model mean scenarios for annual mean temperature and precipitation rates for the 21st century are obtained. Positive trends are found in both temperature and precipitation over northern Europe.

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