Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity

Details Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity

2010-05-15

arxiv.org/abs/1005.2704v2

Physical Review Letters 105, 158701 (2010)

Physics

Physics and Society

5 pages, 4 figures. Modeling part detailed. Final version published in Physical Review Letters

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevLett.105.158701

Online popularity has enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems, the Wikipedia and an entire country's Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and inter-event time. We propose a minimal model combining the classic preferential popularity increase mechanism with the occurrence of random popularity shifts due to exogenous factors. The model recovers the critical features observed in the empirical analysis of the systems analyzed here, highlighting the key factors needed in the description of popularity dynamics.

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