Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition

Details Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition

Jun 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3812802k&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 12, CiteID L12802

Physics

Geophysics

1

Mathematical Geophysics: Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering (3265, 4313, 7857), Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238, 4315), Atmospheric Processes: Synoptic-Scale Meteorology, Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Cyclones, Natural Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Prediction (1816, 1922, 2722, 3238, 3245, 4263, 7223, 7924)

Scientific paper

The characteristics of the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones and its impact on the midlatitude flow are examined in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) multimodel ensemble prediction system (EPS). Ten ensemble forecasts initialized prior to ET for five tropical cyclones in 2008 are investigated using an empirical orthogonal function analysis and fuzzy clustering methodology. Each forecast contains 231 members from eight different global EPS. The EPS contributing to TIGGE differ in their spread and their contributions to the different scenarios. Some of the individual EPS are generally confined to only a few scenarios, whereas others contribute regularly to almost all. TIGGE contains more development scenarios than European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) EPS but the full range of development scenarios is only found with the ECMWF included in the multimodel EPS.

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