Chaos-based forecast of sunspot cycle 24

Details Chaos-based forecast of sunspot cycle 24 Chaos-based forecast of sunspot cycle 24

Jan 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009jgra..11401108c&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 114, Issue A1, CiteID A01108

Physics

Plasma Physics

2

Interplanetary Physics: Solar Cycle Variations (7536), Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Solar Activity Cycle (2162), Nonlinear Geophysics: Chaos (7805), Space Plasma Physics: Chaos (4420)

Scientific paper

We forecast the maximum average Wolf number for both the recent sunspot cycles 22 and 23 and the forthcoming cycle 24 by combining attractor reconstruction techniques, a transformation of variables to a symmetric space, and a simple, yet effective, nonlinear prediction algorithm. For the earlier cycles, the results are quite successful. For the latter, we expect the peak of the cycle to occur in the first quarter of 2011 with Wolf number of 145 +/- 7.

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