Change-point detection in the historical hurricane number time-series: why can't we detect change-points at US landfall?

Details Change-point detection in the historical hurricane number time-series: why can't we detect change-points at US landfall? Change-point detection in the historical hurricane number time-series: why can't we detect change-points at US landfall?

2006-11-10

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611107v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same obvious change of level. Prima-facie this seems rather surprising, given that the landfalling hurricanes are a subset of the basin hurricanes. We investigate whether it really should be considered surprising or whether there is a simple statistical explanation for the disappearance of this change-point at landfall.

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