Capturing the Variable Outer-Zone Relativistic Electrons for Spacecraft Designers

Details Capturing the Variable Outer-Zone Relativistic Electrons for Spacecraft Designers Capturing the Variable Outer-Zone Relativistic Electrons for Spacecraft Designers

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsm42a..05o&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SM42A-05

Physics

7914 Engineering For Hazard Mitigation, 7959 Models, 7984 Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

Outer zone relativistic electrons can cause total dose and internal charging problems for spacecraft. To avoid these problems, spacecraft designers build systems that can withstand the expected environment. While the total dose problem can be well-described by specifications of the long-term average environment, internal charging is dependent on the dynamic environment: frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme conditions. Therefore, in addition to accurate specification of the mean and variance of the environment, designers need accurate specification of the covariance across time, space, and energy. Magnetic storms introduce sufficiently complex temporal covariance structure that existing statistical methods are likely to fail. Instead, we propose a reanalysis, i.e., retrospective specification, approach. We present results of using a spatial-covariance statistical model of the outer zone combined with long-term in situ observations to produce a reconstruction of the outer zone from 0.1 to 6.5 MeV for the years 1994-2005. This reanalysis can be used to estimate a time series of electron flux at the spacecraft location over a long mission. In the future, physics-based data assimilation will augment the statistical framework to produce a superior reanalysis.

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