Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
2011-06-06
Physics
Geophysics
8 pages, 13 figures, http://www.earthquakeprediction.gr
Scientific paper
The analysis of two global data sets of large earthquakes (2010 - 2011, 30 samples of M \geq 7R and 1901-2011, 178 samples of M \geq 8R) reveals that there exists a cause and effect relation between the vertical tidal M1 component amplitude peak and the time of occurrence of the latter EQs. A physical model mechanism is postulated that justifies the obtained results. It is shown that the tidal waves can trigger a large EQ, despite their small amplitude, provided that the seismogenic area is under critical stress load conditions. Actually, it is shown that a large EQ can be triggered by the cooperative action of all vertical tidal components but mainly by the M1 and K1 ones. Examples are presented from the most recent global large EQs (Summatra, Mw = 9.1, 2004 and Japan, Mw = 9.0, 2011) and from Greece (Kythira, Greece, Ms = 6.9R, 2006 and Skyros, Greece, Ms = 6.1R, 2001). The postulated physical model provides the means for the implementation of the first step towards a really short-term earthquake prediction.
Klentos V.
Thanassoulas Constantine
Verveniotis G.
Zymaris N.
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