Calibration and validation of models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of congested traffic patterns

Details Calibration and validation of models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of congested traffic patterns Calibration and validation of models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of congested traffic patterns

2010-08-10

arxiv.org/abs/1008.1639v1

Physics

Physics and Society

Paper presented at the summer meeting of the Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics Committee (AHB45) of the Transportation R

Scientific paper

We propose a quantitative approach for calibrating and validating key features of traffic instabilities based on speed time series obtained from aggregated data of a series of neighboring stationary detectors. We apply the proposed criteria to historic traffic databases of several freeways in Germany containing about 400 occurrences of congestions thereby providing a reference for model calibration and quality assessment with respect to the spatiotemporal dynamics. First tests with microscopic and macroscopic models indicate that the criteria are both robust and discriminative, i.e., clearly distinguishes between models of higher and lower predictive power.

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