Calculation of Thermospheric Neutral Density Secular Change Using a Global Mean Upper Atmospheric Model

Physics

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7969 Satellite Drag (1241), 0355 Thermosphere: Composition And Chemistry, 0358 Thermosphere: Energy Deposition (3369), 1630 Impacts Of Global Change (1225)

Scientific paper

The long-term change of thermospheric neutral density has been investigated using satellite drag measurements and through sensitivity studies using upper atmosphere general circulation models. The magnitude of this secular change has been quantified in both approaches, and the source has been attributed to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. In this study, we use CO2 measurements from 1970 to 2000 at Mauna Loa Observatory and solar ultraviolet irradiance variation in a global mean upper atmospheric model, to calculate the secular change of thermosphere neutral density during this period. To quantify the impact of solar activity on the secular change of neutral density, we also calculated the long-term density change in solar minimum and solar maximum conditions for the same time period. These model results are compared to estimates of thermosphere density change derived from satellite drag observations, showing good agreement.

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