Physics
Scientific paper
Apr 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001soph..199..421b&link_type=abstract
Solar Physics, v. 199, Issue 2, p. 421-435 (2001).
Physics
34
Scientific paper
Cyclic variations of the mean semi-annual intensities I_λ of the coronal green line λ530.3 nm are compared with the mean semi-annual variations of the Wolf numbers W during the period of 1943-1999 (activity cycles 18-23). The values of I_λ in the equatorial zone proved to correlate much better with the Wolf numbers in a following cycle than in a given one (the correlation coefficient r is 0.86 and 0.755, respectively). Such increase of the correlation coefficient with a shift by one cycle differs in different phases of the cycle, being the largest at the ascending branch. The regularities revealed make it possible to predict the behaviour of W in the following cycle on the basis of intensities of the coronal green line in the preceding cycle. We predict the maximum semi-annual W in cycle 23 to be 110-122 and the epoch of minimum between cycles 23 and 24 to take place at 2006-2007. A slow increase of I_λ in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011. A scheme is proposed on the permanent transformation of the coronal magnetic fields of different scales explaining the found phenomenon.
Badalyan Olga G.
Obridko Vladimir N.
Sykora Jan
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