Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

Details Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

2005-10-10

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510077v1

Physics

Physics and Society

5 pages, 3 figures, to appear in: H. Takayasu (ed.), Proceedings of the 3rd Nikkei Econophysics Symposium, Springer-Tokyo, 200

Scientific paper

We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter-occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our findings question the use of self-organized criticality, and in particular the sandpile model, as a paradigm of blackout dynamics in power transmission systems. Hopefully, though, they will provide guidelines to more accurate models for evaluation of blackout risk.

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